New estimates from Media Partners Asia (MPA), calculated after rate card discounts, indicate that net advertising in Asia will grow by 6.0% in 2012, a 1% downgrade from earlier estimates, reflecting lower growth across Greater China, India and Korea in particular.

Television will retain a 37% share of the advertising pie across Asia, though year-on-year it will lose share by a marginal 0.2 percentage points.

Newspapers will see their share drop below 20% for the first time, with the share for magazines below 5% and for radio below 4%.

Online’s share will increase year-on-year from 16% to 18%, while OOH will remain stable at 16%.

“The combination of key global and local events will help buoy advertising prospects across the Asia-Pacific region,” says MPA director Vivek Couto.

”Standout markets include: Indonesia, where regional elections have kicked in and spends have remained strong throughout the year; Thailand and Malaysia, where ad spend has started to pick up again ahead of strong seasonal and event-driven demand; and Japan, where growth is only single-digit but consistently in positive territory month after month for TV and online platforms, a refreshing change – especially for television broadcasters.”

Korean revival

Korea’s ad market experienced a fairly weak first quarter but has since showed signs of revival. The Korea Advertising Index, which surveys sentiment from leading domestic advertisers, suggests healthy demand for June and July.

At the same time, private consumption is also likely to improve, which will help boost advertising.

Key beneficiaries include terrestrial and pay-TV broadcasters, radio and online media. Print spends remain in a lull, down 6% in April, and are expected to remain soft through Q2.

TV ad spend is expected to soften following the London Olympics in Q3 though full-year growth is still expected at 6-7%.

Print advertising has been especially affected by the launch of new general programming channels in pay-TV and renewed demand for strong broadcast networks including SBS and CJ, both of which implemented rate increases and are benefiting from strikes and management churn at competitors (terrestrial TV networks and newspaper groups).

Japan’s ad market is expected to grow by 3.2% this year after a 0.9% contraction in 2012, driven by a 2.8% spike in TV and a 14% increase in online ad sales.

TV spot advertising remains consistently strong while the overall ad market is growing at 3-4% on an annualized basis, according to data from local agencies and the government.

Invariably, comparisons with earthquake-hit 2011 are bound to be favorable, but new product launches and the Olympics are also helping to bring in new budgets, with demand especially strong from the auto, IT and food & beverages categories.

Ad demand returns in SEA

The mood across Southeast Asia is generally positive, as ad demand returns to key markets.

In Malaysia, advertisers through May 2012 have been cautious. Nielsen reported that year-to-date gross ad spend fell by 4.5% through to May, though spends in May increased by 8% on a monthly basis.

A real recovery is expected from June onwards, boosted by Euro 2012, the Olympics, Independence Day celebrations, the Hari Raya festival, elections, and a seasonally robust Q4.

MPA expects Malaysia’s advertising market to grow by 5.8% in net terms for the full year. Notable beneficiaries include terrestrial and pay-TV platforms in particular.

Indonesia’s ad market has grown by about 20% in net terms over the past two years. While MPA expects a small slowdown to 14.6% growth in 2012, trend growth rates have been stronger than anticipated in 1H and have led the Asia-Pacific region.