Strategic and private equity investors alike are eyeing Ten Network as the weakened broadcaster tries to resuscitate ailing ratings in the wake of some costly mis-steps and boardroom turnover.

Despite projected losses until 2016 at the earliest, Ten’s status as third in a three-horse race still looks attractive as a turnaround play in a US$3 billion free-to-air ad market. Its share price has sunk so low that some analysts reckon its current valuation merits a punt for its free-to-air licence alone.

Nonetheless, Aussie media has burned external investors before. A bid by News Corp, owner of incumbent pay-TV network Foxtel, backed by private equity or other players, seems sensible.

The broader market outlook however, should give pause for thought.

The economics of Australia’s TV business has been reshaped by the internet, providing legal and illegal alternatives for two big audience drivers, news and entertainment. Notably, free TV audiences for imported US programming, a former mainstay for Ten in particular, have tumbled, although Foxtel has been buying express windows for pay-TV.

That leaves live sport as the last big ratings magnet for terrestrial TV – a fact not lost on the networks, scrambling for rights and pushing up prices.

At least Australia’s ad market is showing signs of recovery, although free TV’s share seems to have settled at about a third of total spend. Still a good business to be in, but maybe better suited to two lead players rather than three.

This article also appears in the Q3 2014 edition of Media Business Asia magazine.