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Risk Aversion Returns

Risk aversion has returned to damage Asian equities. Most Asian markets experienced their worst September since 2011 while Wall Street also suffered, albeit temporarily until brighter economic news lifted investor hopes.

The worst affected Asian markets were Hong Kong, Indonesia, India and Taiwan, with country-specific issues influencing investors more than regional sentiment.

In Hong Kong, aside from the issue of student street protests, there is also speculation that investors might switch funds to Shanghai where the stock exchange is trading at a discount.

In Indonesia, most of the losses in the Jakarta Composite Index came in the last week of September, after parliament passed a law cancelling direct local elections. This is negative for president Joko Widodo, potentially curtailing his growth plans.

Sentiment on Indonesia media equities remains robust, although year-to-date gains (+4% for the Indonesia media average through Oct. 7 close) have started to moderate. Investors are selling down shares due to macroeconomic concerns and the related impact on Indonesia’s ad market.

India meanwhile suffered its biggest foreign portfolio liquidation in two months. However, investors remain confident and positive in the wake of prime minister Modi’s reform commitment.

The India media average is up 17% for the year. Broadcasters, publishers and pay-TV operators should continue to rally as advertising demand firms up post-Diwali, while both pay-TV subscribers and yields grow via ongoing cable digitalisation.

A Sell-Down For MSKY

The stock average for Asian pay-TV and broadband operators is off 3% this year, largely due to a sell-down in Indonesia for leading player MNC Sky Vision (MSKY).

Demand is likely to grow as two issues join the average, with IPOs for India’s fastest growing player, Videocon d2h, and Indonesia’s largest bundled broadband and digital pay-TV operator, LinkNet.

Meanwhile, MSKY remains in good shape with 74% market share, indicating the company could be undervalued. Nonetheless, the operator is facing increased competition from both cheaper as well as illegal services.

 

A Global Media Spike

Global media majors have had a good year, largely thanks to decent operating performances as well as a touch of M&A fever.

DTH player DirecTV has seen the biggest gains, despite skepticism on the benefits of a potential merger with telecoms giant AT&T. This is testimony to its resilience at home in the US as well as robust growth abroad in Latin America.

Walt Disney and Netflix are also up more than 20% year-to-date, followed by double-digit lifts for Dish, Time Warner and BSkyB.

Time Warner’s Oct. 15 investor day, notable for an announcement that HBO was going OTT for non pay-TV subscribers in the US, outlined some ambitious goals, following a rebuff of 21CF’s takeover bid earlier this year, but skimped on execution and product details.

This article also appears in the Q3 2014 edition of Media Business Asia magazine.

Contact
Lavina Bhojwani
VP, Client Services & Operations
Media Partners Asia
+852 2815 8710
Media Partners Asia

As a leading independent consulting and research provider focused on Asia media & telecoms, MPA offers a range of customized services to help drive business development, strategy & planning, M&A, new products & services and research. Based in Hong Kong, Singapore and India, MPA teams offer in-depth research reports across key industry sectors, customized consulting services, industry events to spread knowledge and unlock partnerships, and publications that provide insights into media & telecoms.

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