Everyone’s got an angle on the ongoing battle between Star and India’s major cable multi-system operators (MSOs), led by Hathway.

As the resolution evolves, a new template could be set that’s followed by others such as Zee, Sony, Indiacast and Discovery.

The latest research report from industry analysts Media Partners Asia (MPA) highlights what the end game could look like. Media Business Asia (MBA) engaged with Mihir Shah (VP, India for MPA) to get a sense of perspective:

MBA: How do you see this battle between broadcasters and distributors resolving in India, and where will it take the TV industry? Will the ecosystem move forward?

Mihir Shah: We see the recent development as a step in the right direction for the industry. In the absence of carriage & placement (C&P) fees, cable operators and broadcasters are going to have to work closely together to win customers and up-sell subscribers with innovative packaging, and then identify new opportunities for monetization.

MBA: What kind of impact do you see on the stakeholders – from consumers through to operators and broadcasters?

Mihir Shah: Consumer Arpus will see a meaningful increase over the next 18-24 months as cable operators try to offset their loss in C&P with an increase in package pricing.

However, MSOs will need to roll out trade prepaid services with robust backend systems, to ensure there is legitimate pass-through of consumer fees collected by local cable operators (LCOs) to others in the business community.

Trade prepaid services will eventually translate to consumer prepaid mechanisms akin to DTH operators, which have generally benefited with this type of system.

Broadcasters risk a loss of reach and viewership for some of their niche channels. With packaging on cable, broadcasters will also lose the luxury of offering 100% sampling for any new channel launches.

In the long term however, the net payout for broadcasters will result in improved parity between digital cable and DTH platforms.

MBA: What are the barriers to execution and what's the downside on all of this?

Mihir Shah: As C&P fees start to dry up, MSOs will need to focus on monetization of subscription revenues with better on-ground collections. They need to create awareness amongst consumers of the revised packages and the need to make a choice.

Operationally, MSOs also need to develop backend systems which can smoothly cater to their secondary point network. Concurrently, they need to conduct roadshows across markets to educate and convince LCOs to make a shift to a trade prepaid system.

Broadcasters in the interim have a limited downside, as revenue losses from a dent in viewership should get compensated by a reduction in C&P fees to MSOs.

MBA: What are your current gut projections for next year in terms of TV industry growth?

Mihir Shah: 2015 should see strong Arpu growth both on cable and DTH. We do not see any material change in volume growth for DTH [4-5 mil. active subscriber additions per year], though cable will see some pressure particularly for the HD segment of consumers. TV advertising growth is more anchored to optimism in the general market economy and will grow at lower double-digits.

MBA: Amongst listed entities who's well positioned? Do you see any broader M&A activity?

Mihir Shah: Based on the current market valuation, most of the positive upside is priced in for Zee but it will remain a long-term beneficiary.

In the distribution space, players such as Hathway and Dish TV still hold some promise, and we see two to three new operators coming to the IPO market and trading next year.

On M&A, ground consolidation in cable has to gain more momentum, and a couple of MSOs are going to look at both primary and second point [i.e. MSO and LCO] acquisitions.

We may also finally see some resolution on who ends up with Sun Direct and/or Big TV. There are a couple of buyers waiting in the wings – it’s all about price.